Battle for Congress

In this section, we will look at where the “Generic Ballot” stands and how that metric has predicted the results in the House of Representatives in the past. The Generic Ballot is determined by asking a simple question in polling: “If the elections for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican Party’s candidate or the Democratic Party’s candidate for Congress in your district?” The goal of this question is to get a national sense of where House races stand, without factoring in the effects of incumbency or individual candidates’ popularity. Historically, Generic Ballot polling has been a reliable predictor of the political parties’ fortunes at the ballot box.  

This year, the Generic Ballot has shown a steady lead for a generic Democratic candidate over a generic Republican candidate of between eight and nine points. This is slightly larger than the 2018 final Generic Ballot lead of 7.3 points, which was very close to the actual margin—8.6 points—by which Democrats prevailed in all the votes cast in House races. That election resulted in a net gain for Democrats of 41 seats. In 2016, the final Generic Ballot showed a slight 0.6-point lead for Democrats, but the final result was actually a 1.1-point House popular vote win for Republicans, even though Democrats gained a net of six seats.

With the Generic Ballot showing an 8.6-point lead for Democrats, the exact same margin as the 2018 final results, does that mean Democrats are favored to pick up another 41 seats? No. In looking at the current electoral map, we believe it is more likely to mean that Democrats are close to a high-water mark in their majority and would need a similar final margin to hold their current number of House seats. But it does tell us that, at this moment, Democrats are likely to maintain a majority in the House with either party having a similar chance of a small net seat gain when the final votes are tallied.

NAM-PAC State in Focus

In the weeks ahead, we will utilize this space to provide an in-depth look at some of the marquee congressional races in key battleground states that feature NAM-PAC champions. But first, in this inaugural election update, we wanted to provide exciting news about the NAM-PAC. As the NAM-PAC has grown, so has its ability to invest in our champions on Capitol Hill. In fact, in 2020, the NAM-PAC will be providing more financial support to the campaigns of pro-manufacturing candidates than in the past six years combined. We look forward to providing insight into these races and also letting you know how you can get involved to do more if you desire.

One thing you can do right now is make a contribution to the NAM-PAC. One hundred percent of the money you contribute goes directly to candidates for the House and Senate with a proven track record of working to help manufacturers succeed. We hope you will consider giving today, and remember, no amount is too small to help ensure our voice is heard loudly and clearly in Congress. Thank you for your support, and for any further information or questions, please email NAM-PAC Director Bryan Spadaro at [email protected].